Stumped picking Oscar winners? Try going with the trend: Here's our quiz

If you’re tired of guessing wrong a moment before each Academy Award winner is announced, maybe it’s time to revise your Oscar-picking strategy before the big Hollywood reveal.

Why not consider using historical trends to help pick winners? You know — the precedents and patterns that weather forecasters and stock market analysts rely on to make predictions. (Yes, I know; they’re not always right, but consider this: Most of them get paid even when they’re wrong!)

As an example, consider the fact that three of the 10 Best Picture nominees are remakes or sequels. So you might think betting on the remake of a critically accepted 1930 film like “All Quiet on the Western Front” is a safe bet. Or maybe sequels like “Avatar: The Way of Water” or “Top Gun: Maverick” might provide enough built-in appeal from the 1980s or early 2000s to give you an edge, right?

Think again. To paraphrase another of this year’s nominees, history doesn’t tell us everything everywhere all at once. Tastes change. Research suggests that sequels seldom win. And cloning a former Best Picture winner has never given birth to a second Best Picture. (Sorry, all you “All Quiet…” fans.)

So, how about using historical trends to assess the acting categories? Is it wise to rely on the enduring popularity of Elvis Presley or Marilyn Monroe? If so, shouldn’t Austin Butler win the Best Actor Oscar for “Elvis”? Shouldn’t Ana de Armas take home a Best Actress Oscar for playing Marilyn in “Blonde”? After all, Cate Blanchett won a Supporting Actress Oscar for portraying screen legend Katharine Hepburn.

But history offers patterns, not guarantees. Blanchett, the only Oscar winner in the running this year, has lost five times. Hepburn lost eight times! History tends to rely on comfortable old themes. But trends change. Today’s themes feature pandemic, war, inflation, uncertainty — all filtered through a lens that reverberates on screen.

The theme of the socially conscious “Triangle of Sadness,” for example, suggests that catastrophe, like the desert-island shipwreck at the heart of the film, might spur wrenching social reform. A science-fiction film has never won for Best Picture, but a madcap sci-fi romp, “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” suggests that even a dysfunctional Asian family can overcome the chaos of the internet and the multiverse, as well as a hellish IRS audit! (Spoiler alert: The family is helped, sort of, by the vicious daughter of a legendary Hollywood couple.)

Whether you rely on old tropes or new ones, spotting the strongest trends can sometimes help us appreciate how the Hollywood elite decide who wins and who loses. So, before making up your mind, take a stab at our 10-question Oscar Quiz. It won’t guarantee you’ll make the right choices, but it may offer some helpful context about past and present winners and losers.

Note: Dates expressed in parenthesis below represent the years these movies were released, not the years they were nominated.

Oscar Quiz 2022

If the quiz does not load, you can take it manually using the Q&As below.

1. Defining a remake

The remake “CODA” won last year’s Best Picture Oscar. Which of these previous Best Picture winners was generally considered a legitimate film remake?

A. "Chicago"B. "Ben-Hur"C. "Marty"D. "Titanic"E. None of the aboveF. All of the above

2. Overcoming the odds

Despite being shut out of acting and directing nominations this year, four movies — “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Women Talking” — all received Best Picture nominations. Which of the following films of the past managed to win the top prize despite a similar disadvantage?

A. "An American in Paris" (1951)B. "Around the World in 80 Days" (1956)C. "Braveheart" (1995)D. "Gigi" (1958)E. "Grand Hotel" (1932)F. "Slumdog Millionaire" (2008)

3. An early opportunity

Besides Cate Blanchett, who is the only female acting nominee this year to be featured in a previous Oscar-winning Best Picture?

A. Angela BassettB. Hong ChauC. Jamie Lee CurtisD. Andrea RiseboroughE. Michelle WilliamsF. Michelle Yeoh

4. An old pro

Which of this year’s Best Picture nominees is the only one to feature a former Best Actor winner?

A. "Avatar: The Way of Water"B. "The Banshees of Inisherin"C. "Elvis"D. "Everything Everywhere All at Once"E. "The Fabelmans"F. "Tár"

5. Language barrier (so-called)

Over the years, few foreign-language films have been nominated for both Best Picture and Best International Film — a feat achieved by this year’s German entry “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Of course, winning both Oscars is even harder. Which of these previous nominees managed to win in both categories?

A. "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" (2000)B. "Fanny and Alexander" (1982)C. "Life is Beautiful" (1997)D. "Roma" (2018)E. "Z" (1969)F. None of the above

6. Actors playing actors

Like Ana de Armas portraying Marilyn Monroe in “Blonde,” actors have been nominated for playing fictional or real-life stage and screen performers for decades. Which of these actors struck Oscar gold by taking on the role of another actor?

A. James CagneyB. Bette DavisC. Martin LandauD. Luise RainerE. Barbara StreisandF. All of the above

7. Portraying disabled people

As with Brendan Fraser’s portrayal of an obese overeater in “The Whale,” Academy Award nominations have become common for actors who can play convincing versions of people debilitated by alcoholism, deafness, dementia and a host of other disorders. Which of the following Oscar winners was nominated for playing a character with a disability, yet failed to take home a gold statuette?

A. Riz AhmedB. Anthony HopkinsC. Troy KotsurD. Ray MillandE. Harold RussellF. Joanne Woodward

8. A third Part Two?

If either “Top Gun: Maverick” or “Avatar: The Way of Water” wins the Best Picture Oscar, it will follow in the footsteps of “The Godfather Part II” to become the third sequel to do so. Which other sequel won the top prize?

A. "Aliens"B. "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"C. "The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers"D. "Rocky 2"E. "Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back"F. None of the above

9. Rocking with Elvis

Rock stars have been the subjects of biopics since long before Austin Butler starred in “Elvis,” but few of them have been given Oscar recognition. Who was the first to gain an Academy Award nomination for playing a rocker?

A. Chadwick BosemanB. Gary BuseyC. Rami MalekD. Gary OldmanE. Lou Diamond PhillipsF. Dennis Quaid

Winning with the Irish

Films featuring either Ireland or Irish characters were strong Academy Award contenders long before “The Banshees of Inisherin” this year. But these films generally don’t make the cut in the voting for Best Picture. Which of these six is the exception?

A. "Belfast"B. "The Crying Game"C. "Going My Way"D. "In the Name of the Father"E. "The Informer"F. "My Left Foot"

OSCAR QUIZ ANSWERS

1. E. None of the above. Actually, “The Departed,” the 2007 Best Picture winner, is the correct answer. It’s Martin Scorcese’s remake of the 2002 Hong Kong film “Infernal Affairs.” But give yourself full credit if you checked any of the other movies. Here’s why: Most critics dismiss “Chicago” (2002) and “Titanic” (1997) because they bear little resemblance to the movies on which they were based. Film experts disqualify the first “Marty” (1955) because its origin lies in a drama aired on television. (The original “Marty” was telecast in 1953.) “Ben-Hur” (1959) isn’t considered a remake because the original was a silent film made in 1925, two years before the first talkie. (Like “The Departed,” “CODA,” the 2022 Best Picture, is a genuine remake, of the 2014 French-Belgian film “La Famille Belier.”)
2. E. “Grand Hotel” is the only Best Picture winner that failed to receive any other Academy Award nominations. All the other films listed for this question received director nominations but no acting nods. In addition to their nominations, the directors of “Around the World in 80 Days,” “Braveheart” and “Slumdog Millionaire” all won Oscars.
3. D. Andrea Riseborough was featured in the cast of “Birdman,” the 2015 Best Picture.
4. C. “Elvis” features two-time Oscar-winner Tom Hanks as Colonel Tom Parker. (The original televised “Elvis” in 1979 also featured a double-Oscar winner. Shelley Winters played the rock star’s mother.)
5. F. None of the above. Actually, “Parasite,” a South Korean film, won both Oscars at the 2020 ceremony.
6. F. All of the above. James Cagney played actor and showman George M. Cohan in “Yankee Doodle Dandy” (1942). Bette Davis played Joyce Heath, a character loosely based on silent-film star Jeanne Eagels, in “Dangerous” (1935). Martin Landau played film actor Bela Lugosi in “Ed Wood” (1994). Luise Rainer played stage actress Anna Held in “The Great Ziegfeld” (1936). Barbra Streisand played comic actress Fanny Brice in “Funny Girl” (1968).
7. A. Riz Ahmed was nominated for Best Actor for playing a deaf drummer in “The Sound of Metal” (2020), but at the 2021 Academy Award ceremony, the Oscar went to Anthony Hopkins, who played an octogenarian suffering from Alzheimer’s disease in “The Father.” Nevertheless, Ahmed won an Oscar the following year for co-producing “The Long Goodbye,” which won for Best Live Action Short Film. Troy Kotsur won a supporting-role Oscar for playing a deaf fisherman in “CODA” (2022). Ray Milland won the Best Actor Oscar for playing an alcoholic writer in “The Lost Weekend (1945). Harold Russell won in support for playing a soldier who lost both hands in World War II in “The Best Years of Our Lives” (1946). Joanne Woodward won the Best Actress Oscar for playing a mental patient with a split personality in “The Three Faces of Eve” (1957).
8. B. “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.”
9. B. Gary Busey was nominated for playing rocker Buddy Holly in “The Buddy Holly Story” (1978). Chadwick Boseman played James Brown in “Get on Up” (2014). Rami Malek won the Best Actor Oscar for playing Freddie Mercury in “Bohemian Rhapsody” (2018). Gary Oldman played Sid Vicious in “Sid and Nancy” (1986). Lou Diamond Phillips played Ritchie Valens in “La Bamba” (1987). Dennis Quaid played Jerry Lee Lewis in “Great Balls of Fire” (1989). (Kurt Russell played the “King of Rock and Roll” in a 1979 televised version called “Elvis.”)
10. C. “Going My Way” (1944) starring Dublin-born Barry Fitzgerald as Father Fitzgibbon, won the Best Picture Oscar in 1945. Fitzgerald, who was nominated as both Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor, won in the latter category. Bing Crosby as Father Chuck O’Malley won the Best Actor award.

BEST PICTURE NOMINEES 2022 (for 2023 awards)

"All Quiet on the Western Front""Avatar: The Way of Water""The Banshees of Inisherin""Elvis""Everything Everywhere All at Once""The Fabelmans""Tár""Top Gun: Maverick""Triangle of Sadness""Women Talking"